Michael Steinhardt Stay in Your Lane

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We can create wealth from trading and investing to equities, commodity, currency, real estate etc. but we should do what is comfortable for us. Each and everything is not comfortable for us which is not comfortable for us, we should not do it at all. A performing task which is out of our comfort zone can prove as expensive for us. If Sachin Tendulkar starts singing and Legendary Lata Mangeshkar start playing cricket than both might meet failure.

We have to follow Mr. Buffett’s advice of circle of competence. Mr. Buffett did not buy any IT stocks during an IT bubble though he under-performed. We can prepare a circle of incompetence for not doing anything which falls into that circle.

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Consider fool among others is better than losing capital to demonstrate as a smart.

Michael Steinhardt has a decent performance over the S&P500. If anyone has invested $10000 in the year 1967 then those funds turn out to be $4.8 million and $190000 in the year 1995 from Michael firm and S&P500 respectively.

During the year 1993, Hedge fund has shown a bull run where every investor wants to give their fund to hedge fund manager to make an investment. Here, Mr. Michael also got a huge fund to manage which is around 200 times more than the amount with he has started a fund. But due to huge fund size, he faced difficulties to deploy fund to small & midcap companies so that he has started roaming around the world and started deploying fund to the area which is out of his competence. His major fortune was made through trading to the US stocks but out of US, he was little aware with the economy of businesses and political systems. He has started deploying fund across the world which is out of his expertise.

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This mistake has broken him badly psychologically and he could not able to retrieve himself again.

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We always have to focus on to the eliminate errors because that is only into our control, everything else we cannot control. If we keep on eliminating errors, then we have a better chance to win the game. During the FY14-18, the majority of the equity fund manager at India got a huge fund inflow due to the huge liquidity and not enough return from other assets class. Hence, many of them have occurred mistakes due to overconfidence and started to go outside their expertise.

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I was a deep discount and bargain hunter investor. My investment career gets to evolve with the time and my investment philosophy slowly transform from great bargain to quality businesses. But I have always take care of not losing capital so that I have invested with a lower percentage of my portfolio to the evolving area. Such a way I have made an experiment with my investment decision. (Still, my attraction towards bargain is with me).

Read for more detail: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick

Jack Bogle Find What Works for You

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Wellington fund was founded in the year 1928 who invest with the balanced portfolio of common and preferred stocks and high‐grade bonds, with the objective of providing investors with stability, income, and a little low‐risk growth to keep pace with inflation. During the year 1966, the company has made an acquisition of the Ivest fund. Ivest fund invests more to the common stocks which invite more fluctuations whereas Wellington fund minimizes fluctuations. Wellington fund was one of the few funds who has survived during a great depression of the year 1929.

After the acquisition of Ivest, Wellington’s equity average increased from 55% to 80% and fast turnover also get started.

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Their new strategy does not suit them and their fund fall by 55% compared to 31% of fall by the S&P 500. After that, they started a new strategy based on technical analysis. It’s shocking that Mr. Bogle who has formed an index-based strategy and fund into the leadership of him use technical analysis based fund. They lost 40% during the year 1972 and which recovered during the year 1983, after the 11 long years. Their strong offense proven wrong for the defense. And they lost reputation also.

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We need to identify the method which is comfortable for us. If we adopt the method which is not comfortable for us then we have to face difficulties. If we adopt the method of others then those borrowed method does not provide us a conviction and create a problem with our investment. Additionally, if we have an investment methodology but we go out of that methodology then it will also affect our wealth.

There is more than one method for creating wealth but if any method of creating wealth is not suitable with our temperament then we should avoid it rather stick with it. Every person is different in risk-taking capability, emotional characteristics, and the different purpose of making an investment so that if one method is suitable to a particular person then it might be possible that the same method is not suitable to the other one. No method is right or wrong but what suits us is right for us.

Read for more detail: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick

Benjamin Graham There Are No Iron-Clad Laws

During my course at Flame University “Art of Investing with Neeraj Marathe”, Mr.Durgesh Shah Sir has suggested me to read a book which is “Big Mistakes”. So that I am hereby starting to write my learning from the book.

We make many mistakes in life and learn from those mistakes. We keep focus on does not repeat the same mistakes again and again.

My Guru always quotes that “If we focus on avoiding mistakes then we won half of the battle.” We always cannot keep on making mistakes and learning from it but also we can learn from others mistakes which we can avoid during our journey.

Learning from others mistakes and experience is the easiest way to learn and grow.

I am hereby starting my learning from mistakes made by well know investors. Upcoming series will be going to include learning from the book “Big Mistakes”. I am grateful to Michael Batnick – author of the book.

The first article of the series, I start with Mr. Benjamin Graham who is a father of a value investing. He has given a new direction to the investing field.

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Mr. Graham is a guru of Mr. Buffett and we cannot imagine investing field without Mr. Graham. Few biggest gift from Ben Graham to the investing field are Margin of safety, the difference between price & value, calculation of value to the business, etc.

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Many a time, we think that stocks fall ~40-50% from the high price, we should start trying to catch “falling knives” (Such terminology is widely used by so-called professionals). But we should focus on the value of the particular business rather focus on the high price and current price. During recent fall to the stock market, many of the people started picking stocks just because they fall much from the high price.

Indian companies examples

One of the media & Entertainment Company which is falling by ~51% from its high price but the company is making losses, negative CFO, management is taking a higher salary and also giving a loan to the subsidiary companies.

One of the companies which are into the DTH services and that company fall by ~79% from its high price. The company is making very little profit, very little FCF, huge debt, negative ROE% and where value can be still very less.

Such a fall in price does not make it attractive to buy which has very little or no value.

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The market always works in a pendulum and people generally forget the nature of the pendulum. The pendulum always moves towards both extreme directions.

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Whenever pendulum moves towards the bullish extreme, many of us forget that such situations will not stay forever. Many of us forget about the risk which involves during the bull phase. And start taking higher risk for generating higher returns; which invites a further huge amount of risk. At bullish sentiment, people generally buy assets at the highest valuations multiple and that invites the risk to the particular asset class. This scenario has a very high chance of getting damage to our wealth compared to generating a higher return.

Reverse to such scenario, whenever the pendulum moves towards extreme bearish phase, then generally people start recognizing the risk and start avoiding to invest in the particular asset class; which take out the risk from that particular asset class. Such a scenario is the appropriate time for capturing the opportunities because in such scenario we have very less chance to lose.

When people warmly accept any securities then the price will go far from the value and when people avoid or hate any securities then the security will fall in its value.

Mr. Graham has a strategy to purchase undervalued securities and shorted overvalued securities which have made him successful. Mr. Graham has started with $450000 and which he turns to be $2500000 in just three years.

During the last month of the year 1929, Dow Jones has started going down and Mr. Graham has started to cover his short positions and shifted to preferred stocks by considering prices are low. But the calculation of Mr. Graham went wrong and he lost 20% while Dow Jones down by 17%. After this Mr. Graham has considered that market has made the bottom and he used to leverage money to boost profit but again his calculation went wrong and he lost 50%. During the year 1929 to the year 1932, Mr. Graham has lost 70% of his money.

My learning

We should not take leverage to boost up our profits from the market, we cannot measure the madness of the market. I have implemented this learning from the mid time of my investment career and I have parked my money where I am convinced to park. I have never taken a leverage position rather I have to keep liquidity with my portfolio (I was holding ~73% liquidity in my portfolio during January – 2018 and currently having ~65% liquidity position). I have always focused on capital protection over the missing out of opportunity.

 An example of one the biggest wealth creator company of the Indian stock market—

infy

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Read for more detail: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick