8 – THE CYCLE IN ATTITUDES TOWARD RISK – MASTERING THE MARKET CYCLE

MMC08 01

In a good time, people do not care for the risk. They believe that they will be able to generate a good return by taking additional risk. But what happens when bad time comes? Does this behaviour remain the same? No, in bad times, people change their focus on protecting wealth rather create it.

Investing means to build a portfolio position in a way that future development helps the potential profit generation.

But do we predict the future? Someone believes that they can. Since (a) investing consists of dealing with the future but (b) the future isn’t knowable, that’s where the risk in investing comes from. If we can accurately predict the future then would not be investing becomes so easy and everyone can perform it in a better way?

We do not even know what is going to happen with us in the coming few moments, then how we can predict the future of the corporate earnings and economy accurately. It is just a probability of occurrence of the events. The event may or may not occur, and if occurs then may not be on the time at where we have predicted. For becoming superior investors must have to understand, assess and deal with the risk. And without dealing with the risk, we cannot become a superior investor. It’s an essential element of investment success. How we behave with the risk is to decide investment success.

MMC08 02

It is overstated that the more you take risks, the more return you get. But if we take the higher risk then the outcome might be in lower or higher potential return. The concept should be, higher riskier investment should produce a higher potential return otherwise nobody will be going to invest in the particular assets.

 BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “UNDERSTANDING RISK”

If two investment avenue promises similar returns with differences into the risk scenario then we should choose the lower risk with assured return. Treasury bond and any other investment both promises same return then one should go with treasury investment.

Due to our risk aversion towards stocks, we remain careful while studying companies, keep a margin of safety, appropriate sceptical towards analysis, conservative to assumptions. For successful investing, we all need to focus on mentioned factors but not all perform these tasks and if perform then not every time.

MMC08 03

So, investors demand incremental returns forbearing of incremental risk. But when positive scenario plays out, people become less risk-averse than what they should. Now, they put less effort and less caution for performing an analysis. Not careful with a margin of safety, not demanding for the risk premium and resulting in it, prices of risky assets raise more compared to less risky assets. These reduce the incremental returns for the bearing incremental risk. The most unwise investment made during the good time rather in a bad time.

Cycle

CYCLE01

So, the risk is higher when everyone feels that risk is lower. And the risk is lower when everyone feels that risk is higher. It’s all about temperament, comes with experience, no educational courses can teach it.

 Example – Maruti Suzuki – everyone bullish when marketing goods, majority of research reports indicated per capita car in India compared to others nations such as China, USA etc. but what happen when the euphoria has been wiped out then everyone has a threat of EV, disruption of business. We have to think that the country is the same, opportunity is the same. The scenario only changes from over-optimism to pessimism, liquidity has dries.

Cycle

CYCLE02

Just as risk tolerance had positioned them to become buyers of overpriced assets at the highs, now their screaming risk aversion makes them sellers— certainly not buyers— at the bottom. Here, people realize that they have made a mistake in selecting investment Avenue, selecting a particular stock, missed a few points in the analysis, etc. etc. But when the bull phase enters, they always made similar kind of mistakes which they realized during the bear phase.

We generally take more risks when we should avoid or behave in a risk aversion. And we behave risk aversion when we should take an incremental risk for incremental returns. We need to balance between too much and too little.

Such extreme behaviour tends to work as a cycle in the market.

MMC08 04

Risk arises when prices of the assets reaching towards high and started getting vague investment rationale to justify such a high price.

MMC08 05

MMC08 06

If we want to save ourselves from the carefree market situation then we have to accept the lower comparative return during the carefree market scenario and have to look like an old-fashioned investor. This is only a way to save our reputation and wealth.

I have experienced the same in my investment career. I have mentioned many times in the past articles that I remain in huge liquidity position since the mid of 2017, and this has given me much rough and sarcastic behaviour from people. But now, they have lost their major part of the portfolio and I am searching for a good investment opportunity with a flat portfolio.

When a negative situation prevailing in the market, people tend to become more and unnecessary sceptical, they show risk-averse behaviour about the investment which they did not perform during the boom period. Such behavioural bias left them with a lower return with incremental risk. During the boom period, people have a fear of missing out an opportunity and during the negative period, they have a fear of losing the capital. When people have to show a risk-averse behaviour, they show a risk-tolerant behaviour and vice-versa.

MMC08 07

We always need to check; how much positive news is discounted into the price? Whether upcoming positive events already discounted into the price? Higher price compared to the intrinsic value left with a lower margin of safety. We have to be sceptical towards the decision making but sceptical in pessimism environment is for optimism and sceptical in the optimistic environment is for pessimism.

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation. 

Read for more detail: Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the odds on your side by Mr.Howard Marks

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 2004 – 2006

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2004

Mr.Buffett has explained why many of the investors do not able to create wealth by investing into the equities.

WB 2004 01

When we trade extensively then we incurred an additional cost which reduces our return. Also, many of us follow tips of others and rely on others which also reduces investment return. Many of people start investing when market continuously moving into upward direction with the fear of losing an opportunity to earn and get exit from the market when the market starts moving downward with the fear of losing investment. Rather we should increase our investment when the market is continuously moving downward.

Mr.Buffett has been explained that one of the ways to survive into the commodity-like business is to become a low-cost producer. Commodity business generally does not have pricing power and prices of a particular commodity are decided based on the demand & supply of a particular commodity so that they have to focus on the costs.

WB 2004 02

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2005

Investment + Cash per share at Berkshire Hathaway –

WB 2005 01

Per share value of non-insurance business –

WB 2005 02

During January – 2006, the price of a share of Berkshire Hathway – A was traded at $90,000.

Mr.Buffett’s thought on Moat

WB 2005 03

The strong moat can result in a strong flow of float. If the company having a moat then the company has the ability to raise prices, getting the float, higher return ratios, raising market shares, etc.

Indian Companies Examples

One of the two-wheelers and commercial vehicle manufacturing company of India

EIM

One of the four-wheeler manufacturing company of India

Maruti

We can see that float is also getting compound over a period of time which benefits to the company to survive for the long-term and to create wealth.

Why investors are not able to make money through the company can earn well –

WB 2005 04

20131210-image

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2006

Warren Buffett answer for his currency derivatives position –

WB 2006 01

WB 2006 02

We need to focus on avoiding mistakes which can spoil out our wealth. If we focus on avoiding mistakes then half of the battle, we won.

Mr.Buffett on Walter Schloss

WB 2006 03

WB 2006 04

Mr.Buffett on people who clone others’ portfolio –

WB 2006 05

Mr.Walter Schloss is one of the investors who have an influence on my investment decisions. I keep his advice always with me. (Published at Safal Niveshak –

https://1icz9g2sdfe31jz0lglwdu48-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Walter-Schloss-16-Rules-to-Make-Money-in-Stock-Market.pdf )

Warren Buffett’s Letters 1957 – 2012

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 1983 – 84

WB Letter 1983

Berkshire Hathway made an acquisition of majority stake into Nebraska Furniture Mart. Mrs.Blumkin leave Russia for America when she was the age of 23. She had no formal education, no knowledge of English.

WB 1983 01

Many retailers had pressurized to the furniture and carpet manufacturers to not to sell products to Mrs.B but Mrs.B has managed to run her business and also able to cut prices. She has to face many cases but she won all and received huge publicity.

WB 1983 02

Mr.Buffett has explained the concept of intrinsic value in a very well manner.

WB 1983 03

Mr.Buffett has explained how to look at the economic Goodwill with the example of the See’s Candy. He has an emphasis more on economic Goodwill rather than accounting Goodwill. Company’s ability to produce a higher return on assets compared to market then that excess return is economic Goodwill.

WB 1983 04

Also mentioned that assets heavy businesses require additional capital for the further growth.

WB 1983 05

L&T

PunjL

GodrejP

Great business creates a fortune during an inflationary year where the company requires less tangible assets. And also companies having availability of the fund for acquisition of the new business. They do not have to depend on the bringing additional fund by either debt or issuing new share capital.

I have quoted example of 2 two companies into the automobile business and one company is in the paint business.

MarutiS

HeroM

AsianP

Example 1 – 3 which are asset heavy businesses, where we can see that borrowing is compounding, non-availability of free cash flow and wealth of shareholders does not created or get erode, whereas in example 4 – 6 which are asset light or least asset businesses, we can see that borrowing reduced or increased at a lower rate and investments into the books has compound well, availability of free cash flow which resulted into the wealth creation for the shareholders.

But the management who is not disciplined then they will do a silly things such as –

WB 1983 06

WB Letter 1984

Mr.Buffett has mentioned benefits of repurchase of shares.

WB 1984 01

WB 1984 02

Warren Buffett’s Letters 1957 – 2012

Disclaimer: Businesses discuss in this article is not a recommendation to Buy-Sell-Hold. And I am not a SEBI registered research analyst.