LIMITS ON COPING – 15 – MASTERING THE MARKET CYCLE

We have seen superior results with superior insights. But for getting these skills, we also need to know the limitations and how difficult it is to acquire them.

MMC15 01-min

If we are going to identify what will be going to happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow or next week, next month then we are not going to get success in identifying cycle. Identifying cycle is never easy, it requires a greater effort to capture a cycle in a better way which provides us with an advantage.

MMC15 02-min

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation. 

Read for more detail: Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the odds on your side by Mr.Howard Marks

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 2011 – 2012

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2011

Mr.Warren Buffett has explained on the commodity to brand-

WB 2011 01

One of the plastic product manufacturing company which use crude oil & it’s derivatives as a raw material but due to selling a brand company can increase a profit higher than growth to the sales

Supreme Ind

One of the footwear manufacturing company which use rubber, plastic I.e. crude oil derivatives as a raw material but due to selling a brand company can increase a profit higher than growth to the sales

Relaxo

Mr.Buffett on investing-

WB 2011 02

When we make a compromise with our need and make an investment of those savings to the proper assets, we can able to receive more purchasing power in the future. We need to majorly focus on the beating inflation for the longer period of time which will provide us a more purchasing power in the future. Our minimum target to earn a return from our investment should be inflation rate + GDP growth rate. This is an appropriate return which will provide us a more purchasing power in future and also build us wealthier. During the current scenario in India, inflation rate 3.77% + GDP growth rate 8.20% = 11.97%, it should be a minimum threshold return from the investment we make.

If we look at the 10 years average inflation rate and GDP growth rate in India then it is 7.71% and 7.17% respectively. So that if we have made an investment in the year 2007-2008 than we should have minimum threshold return of 14.88%. and for the last 20 years is 14.60%.

WB 2011 03

WB 2011 04

WB 2011 05

WB 2011 06

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2012

Mr.Buffett on intrinsic value creation –

WB 2012 01

Mr.Buffett on capital-intensive business –

WB 2012 02

We can use a similar parameter for analyzing a capital-intensive business. Here, we can check that whether the company has higher interest coverage after paying current year interest cost or not. This parameter indicates that the company can pay comfortably interest cost on additional borrowing or not. Such quality will not easily available with all the capital-intensive companies so that we can able to filter out good company from the capital-intensive business segment.

One of the FMCG Company which is the manufacturing and marketing of household products and personal care products

Godrej Consumer

One of the laboratory business company of India

Thyrocare Tech

Warren Buffett’s Letters 1957 – 2012