BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “PATIENT OPPORTUNISM”

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We bought an investment in a panic and sell it at the boom. Such an opportunities, we get during the market cycle. But sometimes being inactive and wait for the opportunity works better in an investment.

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We bought an investment in a panic and sell it at the boom. Such an opportunities, we get during the market cycle. But sometimes being inactive and wait for the opportunity works better in an investment. We should not be going for chasing an investment rather we should wait for investment opportunities to come to us. When we are chasing an investment then it might happen that we might not get an opportunity at a bargain. We only get bargain where the seller is motivated to sell and such opportunities provide us a bargain.

Every time a great bargain will not be available, cycle – pendulum not at an extreme where we can go against it. Many a time, Market situations are balanced and fairly priced. In that case, we have to make an investment decision from what is available to us.

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In cricket, we do not try to hit each and every ball. We try to identify proper pitch to hit and till that opportunities, we just need to wait for a proper pitch or just keeps on rotating strikes.

Same with the investment, we should always wait for the proper pitch which is in our competence area and then needs to hit on it.

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In investing, the penalty is the loss of our capital. And if we try to eliminate such possibilities of getting penalized then, of course, we only remain with the rewarding investment opportunities. But many a time, we also need to miss some winning opportunities for getting our perfect pitch. And that can be bearable compared to the penalty of losing our capital. Staying on the pitch is more important compared to sitting at the stadium and seeing dreams of playing well for winning the match.

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We should wait for the profit-making opportunities with the control on risk. If we lost our focus on protecting our capital then huge waiting period and higher returns also might not be able to provide us above average returns.

Many a time, we get lucrative profit-making opportunities but for getting those opportunities, we need to take a higher risk and sometimes, we do not even know that we are taking a higher risk.

Generally, people shift towards higher risk investments while they do not get desire returns from the safer investments.

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Before the credit crisis occurs, people tend to take borrowing at a cheaper cost and make an investment into the high return opportunities with the belief of low risk.

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When prices are keeps on going higher and higher than, we cannot refuse to have a lower returns with the higher risk. Mr.Howard Marks mentioned few aspects while lower returns environments exist.

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There is no easy way to cope up with such situations. One major mistake people make is reaching for the returns and forgetting the risk. Always seeing dreams for making a century in every match and forget the risk of losing a wicket before hitting a century.

When there is a low return environment then we need an exceptional skill, high risk bearing capabilities and huge luck for generating higher returns.

The major opportunities for buying an investment comes where the holder of an asset are forced to sell it. Such situations create a bargain opportunities for us. When baller is frustrated and then only there will be a chance of occurring a mistake by him and that creates an opportunity for a batsman to hit six. But for hitting a six, we need to protect our wicket and need to stay on the pitch. We get a good opportunity to make a good score when baller is frustrated and throwing lousy balls; not when he is sharply bowling and chance to lose our wicket is higher. Or batsman is frustrated and want to make score then he will lose his wicket. Similarly with the investment; we do not get good investment returns while we are frustrated and want to make an investment or all our friends are earning & we have missed out opportunities. We get good investment returns while all are negative or frustrated and we have the capability to capture the opportunity.

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Sometimes question raised in our mind that seller can be well informed and rational also then why he sell something at the bargain price?

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When forced sellers come to sell their assets then market requires a liquidity to buy assets at a bargain price. So that the person who is waiting for an opportunity those only can capture such opportunities.

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Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks

BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “FINDING BARGAINS”

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In all the previous articles of the series, I discussed buying a cheaper assets / Investment. But buying cheap does not mean that we should go and buy anything which seems cheaper.

We need to prepare a list of investment ideas which are matches with our criteria, matches with our risk tolerance capabilities and exclude which are not matching with our criteria. There are not each and every idea which are compatible with our risk appetite, we need to work on the ideas which fall under our circle of competence. We get many ideas which can be good but not compatible with our criterion then we need to stay away from it.

Before eating a food, we need to know which kind of food we really like to eat. We do not like each and every food so as similar to it, we need to prepare a list of ideas which match with our criterion.

If we are managing the fund of others, then not only our risk appetite but also risk appetite of clients, we need to focus.

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The second step is to select an investment idea from the prepared list; which is suitable for the potential returns and risk ratio, value for the money scenario.

After getting the list of the foods which we like then we need to work on the place from where we get a food with requiring quality, where we get food as per our spending, etc. we generally do not prefer to visit the place where food is not available as per our taste and preference.

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If we pay high valuation for the any of the assets then it is logical that our potential returns will be kept on reducing and might be chances of occurrence of loss starts increasing. We made an investment for generating returns and enhancing returns.

We buy food for fulfilling our hunger not for exhibiting of our food dish with expensive food. We sometimes eat expensive food, not on a daily basis. As not only expensive foods can able to fulfill our hunger similar to that not only good and quality investment can able to provide us returns.

We need to focus on the bargain through which we can able to generate a potentially higher returns with minimizing risk.

Sugar IT

As I quoted an example of a good fundamental IT & Pharma company with cheap sugar company.

We can see that if we have bought the comparatively lower fundamentally good stock at a cheap price than this stock has generated a higher return compared to the good fundamental stocks in last 5 years.

Good food means we get a satisfaction & fulfill our hunger from eating that food, and that never matter how much expensive or cheap it is.

In general buying good assets mean, the assets provide us high potential returns relative to lower risk and also has a low price relative to the value of an asset.

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Mr. Howard Marks mentioned that while popularity is high towards stocks and people hates bonds, also many institutions shifting from bond to stocks; such situations provide a bargain for the bonds.

When the time change and people seek for more safety relative to the price appreciation then they start recognizing the potential of bonds.

Generally, people start recognizing the potential of the assets while the price of an assets starts appreciating. But people who have identified assets earlier, those can produce above-average returns.

When the restaurant is crowded then only people recognize the popularity of a restaurant. We make a decision by seeing how much-crowded restaurant is. If no one at a restaurant then we generally not prefers to visit by assuming that particular restaurant provides a low-quality food. Similarly with stocks, when everyone is buying particular stocks then we also run for buying those stocks with assuming high quality with high return. We do not check anything and follow the crowd.

We should try to make an investment into the underpriced assets rather than fairly priced. Fairly priced assets just provide fair returns with risk involvement. So that we should focus on underpriced assets with risk involvement for generating above-average returns.

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Bargain only available while perception is worse compared to the reality towards the asset. If everyone feels good and want to own that assets, then that asset will not be available at a bargain more.

When everyone cannot able to see the potential of the asset then we need to check the reason for unloved of the asset. Unloved assets can be available at the bargain if people hate it more than it should be.

If nobody is loved to the asset then nobody holding it So that demand for the asset will increase when people can able to see the potential of the asset. If our assumption has proven wrong and nobody is holding an asset or people unloved an asset then we might get limited downside or get the least loss from our investment.

When nobody to go for visiting a particular restaurant then we get foods at cheap cost with the proper quality for maintaining its customer.

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Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks

 

BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “Combating Negative Influences”

In this article, I am going to discuss regarding the psychological factors which affect our decisions negatively.

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Market many times provide us an opportunities to earn superior performance through inefficiencies, mispricing, misperception, mistakes of other people.

But the question is why such opportunities come? What makes us different from other people? Why mistakes do occurs?

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We need to analyze data and reach the conclusion. In investing errors occurs not due to analytical factors but errors mainly come from psychological factors.

Let’s look at the few psychological elements which affecting the investment decisions.

First emotion is GREED – Desire for money.

Most of us are making an investment for making more money. If we don’t care about the making more money than we are not going to make an investment.
And also there is nothing wrong with trying to make money. The market and economy run because of our desire to make money. But we should remain careful with a transformation of desire towards greed.

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Real estate

Real estate sector in India in the year 2007-08 creates a bubble and huge jump in the optimism by everyone. Such situation resulted under the sharp fall in the value of the sector.

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Due to an impact of greed, people hope that their strategies help them to produce higher returns without taking higher risk for forever. And due to this hope, many times people hold highly priced securities with expectations of more appreciation can be possible. Many times such expectations went wrong and prove that expectations were unrealistic and people have ignored the risk.

Opposite of Greed is FEAR. As similar to the greed, excess fear is also harmful to the investors. Excess of fear stops us from taking a constructive decision while actually, we require taking such decisions. Due to fear, many a time we cannot able to make a good investment and also lose the opportunity.

The third factor is PEOPLE’S TENDENCY TO DISMISS LOGIC.
Generally, it happens that people stop using logical thinking and they start doing work with an irrational mindset. Many a time, we are not ready to accept logical reasoning for the situations and work as per unrealistic scenario. We do not apply what we have learned in the past but get easily deviate from those learning.

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When market or a particular strategy starts generating higher returns for a while, then we started believing that it will continuously generate such returns without an involvement of risk.

Howard Marks called such situations as “Silver bullet”, the Holy Grail.

But is it really same strategy keeps on generating higher returns without risk?

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As Warren Buffett mentioned, when prices started rising then it affects to the reasoning power of the people. It led to mania and situations of mania results towards the bubble.

The fourth factor is THE TENDENCY TO CONFORM TO THE VIEW OF THE HERD RATHER THAN RESIST.

Many a time, we started Believing to the crowd and starts to take an action as per the crowd behavior. Though behavior of the crowd is harmful and dangerous to us.

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The fifth factor is ENVY. Envy comes into the picture when we are comparing ourselves with others. And envy works as a negative force which affects our decisions.

When we see that our investment is growing then we remain happy. But the time we start comparing our investment returns with investment returns of others then we become sad. Now, envy starts showing its color and we make decisions which we may not take or which may be harmful to the financial health.

It is very difficult to see the higher growth of other compared to our growth.

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The sixth factor is EGO. Ego gets satisfaction while we generated higher returns compared to others. And we are keeps on evaluating our return in the short term. While we should focus on the longer horizon returns rather than keeps on tracking returns in the short term and also try to get out of the trap of ego. Ego can be harmful to the financial health. We keep on demonstrates that how much we know much compared to others rather than focusing on how much we know and how much we do not know.

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The seventh factor is the CAPITULATION. It means investors give up towards the situations while economic and psychological pressure becomes irresistible.

Many a time, overpriced assets become more overpriced, and underpriced assets become more and cheaper. This scenario affects to the psychology of investors and repetitions of such situations inspired investors to give up towards the situations and make investment decisions without using logical reasoning.

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When few or all the factors combined then it affects to the investor’s decision making and that affects the market. This resulted in the mistakes and those can be expensive for our financial health.

Psychology in IPO is funny. When our friend is applying to IPO and we asked for the business then he doesn’t know about the business. But he is applying for getting good returns. And he continuously getting higher returns and such higher returns earned by our friend attracts us to make an investment into the IPO. And such situations keep on repeating & more people get involved into the IPOs.

IPOs

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Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks

BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “AWARENESS OF THE PENDULUM”

In the previous article, we have seen that everything moves in a cycle. And if we cannot able to understand the cycle, then we must pay for it. In this article, I am going to discuss on moments of the pendulum and how we can take benefits of its moments.

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We have seen pendulum and its moments. Generally, pendulums do not always remain to the extremes, majority time pendulum stays near to its main point. And whenever pendulum moves towards its extreme then again it will come back towards either extreme. The force of the swing of the pendulum itself responsible for its reversal.

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Generally, our behavior towards the situation is responsible for the swing of the pendulum towards extremes and also responsible for coming back towards its mean point. Investors see the situation with either greed or fear and reach to the conclusion. When people are greedy, they become more optimistic toward the situation and they want to pay any premium for getting that situation favorable. Vice-versa, when people feel fear, then they are not ready to buy the stock at the cheapest value.

Excess greed creates risk taking behavior and excess fear creates a risk aversion among the people.

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As there are two major risks in investing – 1) Risk of losing our capital and, 2) Risk of losing opportunities. But when pendulum moves towards the extreme end, then one of the above risks will dominate our investment decisions.

When pendulum at extreme bullish situation then

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And when the pendulum nears to the extreme bearish situation then

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When things happen in a good manner, then people become more greedy and confident about the situations which bring optimism towards the particular situations. People forget the involvement of risk and ready to pay anything for getting the assets. Vice-versa when things not happening in a good manner, then people are more fearful towards the situations and realize the inherent risk. Such situations bring bargains for the assets.

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Sugar prices

Sugar stocks

We can able to see that when prices of sugar were low, people not ready to make an investment in the sector, etc. at such situations provide us a bargain opportunities and when things start getting well, we can able to make a good return. Vice-versa when everyone knows about the story, then that story is there in the price. We cannot able to make an abnormal return or chances are high to lose of our capital.

Wise people recognize the bargain first, then others will follow them and run behind the assets for buying it at any premium price.

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We have seen three phases of the bull market. As similar to it, the bear market also has three phases.

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When everyone fears with the negative news, events and they start thinking that such worst situations remain forever. Major bottom occurs over such situations. When everyone forgets that tide can again come in and such situations provide us a bargain opportunity. Vice-versa when everyone thinks that good time never going to end and they can generate higher returns easily, people forget that tide can go out then major top gets formed.

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Those people who understand swing of the pendulum then they have protected their capital as well as made the huge return during the year 2009 and year 2014.

When everyone fears from the situations and think such worst remain forever. When such situations arise then the person who analyses and conclude that things can go better he can generate a better return with lower risk. Vice-versa when everyone thinks that things remain better forever than that is a period of painful losses.

The pendulum never continues to swing towards an extreme, it will be reversed from extreme. Extreme swing of the pendulum is itself responsible for the swing towards the opposite direction of the pendulum.

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Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks