FMCG – LUCKY IDIOT

We should take care when company deliver their promises but actually traded at more than their promises. Companies that have to deliver a higher sale, earnings growth then they will be available at higher multiple. But we should distinguish between higher and reasonable multiples. Stocks which does not have underlying soundness then those will become speculative and riskier.

II C18 01

When sales growth keeps coming people ignore the underlying quality of business and financial. As the company grows, its growth becomes slower otherwise the company will eat up the entire world. As growth gets slower, multiple also gets lower. We need to understand that we cannot provide similar multiple to the same company at every phase of the company. Higher quality growth commands a higher multiple but as growth slows down, multiple for the same business gets lower down.

One of the air-cooler manufacturing company of India

Symphony

Symphony1

We can see that as growth slowdown in the FY2018 and 2019 then P/E multiple of the company has fallen down rapidly.

Comparison of Real Estate VS Pharma VS FMCG

RE PH FMCG

We can see that in the Jan-2008 Real estate companies (Just two companies) MCap was ~4x of 10 pharma companies and ~2x of 10 FMCG companies. Pharma and FMCG companies have posted growth and real estate companies are not able to grow at the same peace. In addition, real estate companies were traded at sky-high valuations which resulted in an average return of ~-91% whereas Pharma (*not taken from high mcap) and FMCG has posted average return of ~963% and 1109% respectively.

If we look at the fall in price too low of 2008 then also pharma and FMCG have outperformed real estate.

RE PH FMCG1

If we see the quality companies i.e. pharma and FMCG then those fall less than the entire market fall, Nifty fell by 50%+ in the year 2008.

In the Short term, any stocks win the popularity of the market but in the long-term earnings matters. If we see that fancy business has does not perform in the long term but boring business such as FMCG has outperformed in the long term.

If we look at the P/E multiple of DLF and Unitech then that was 36.69x and 82.22x in high of the year 2008 and that fall to 4.67x and 4.21x respectively. Whereas Lupin, Sun Pharma, HUL, ITC, and Nestle was traded at P/E of 13.54x, 17.91x, 26.23x, 29.34x, 26.90x and fall to 12.50x, 17.52x, 26.71x, 22.28x, 24.80x respectively.

Market panic provides us with an opportunity to enter into such business which helps us to get more returns. If we have bought the above-mentioned pharma and FMCG companies at a high of the year 2008 and then bought again at low of the year 2008 then-current average return of pharma and FMCG has been increased by ~347% and 137% respectively.

For the current scenario, if we see HUL MCap vs 10 Pharma companies then HUL has a 24% higher MCap from pharma 10 companies.

This analysis is given by many of the investors and fund managers but if we look at the return ratios then average RONW% & ROCE% of top 25 pharma companies is ~20% and average RONW% & ROCE% of top 10 pharma companies is ~16% whereas RONW% & ROCE% for the HUL is 80% and 90% respectively.

Pharma VS HUL

So, if we look at the growth and profitability of the top 10 pharma and HUL then does not has a wide difference but asset quality is far good for HUL compared to the top 10 pharma which must need to look. This comparison is not similar to real estate and pharma and FMCG whereas real estate has poor asset quality compared to the pharma and FMCG but here HUL has a better asset quality. If pharma has a huge earning growth compared to the HUL with 15-20% of return ratios then we can look into it. If we look at the ~73 listed FMCG then those companies do not have similar asset quality then they do not have a similar kind of valuation but those have, they command.

Closed watch also shows real-time sometimes in a day that does not mean, we consider that watch as a good watch.

If we compared sugar companies’ vs tea & coffee companies then it can be a good comparison where sugar companies are available more than double in MCap.

Sugar VS Tea & Coffee

II C18 02

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation.

Read for more detail: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig

WB Letter 1994

Mr. Buffett has mentioned that they are ready to wait for opportunities within their comfort zone. They do not like to capture each and every opportunity but want to capture an opportunity within their circle of competence. He added that they have picked up their best investment when some of the macro factors are at the peak. Here, we can also make an interpretation that we also can make a good investment when the macro is at the peak of worst situations such as 2008 global crisis, 2013 depressed economic growth with policy paralysis, etc.

Own investment approach

wb_1994_01

Book Value and Intrinsic Value
wb_1994_02

Mr. Buffett has explained how we need to look at the growing business in-terms of earning and not huge growth into the book value.

Berkshire has made an investment into the Scott Fetzer at the beginning of the year 1986 with having a collection of 22 business which is the same in the year 1994. They paid $315.20 million for Scott Fetzer which having a book value of $172.60 million.

Performance of the book value given by Mr. Buffett of Scott Fetzer –

wb_1994_03

We can see that book of the company has not grown but earnings of the company have grown approximate double. Also when Berkshire has made an investment into the company then the company has debt on balance sheet and in the year 1994, the company becomes virtually debt free. Return on equity has been improved well.

Intrinsic Value and Capital Allocation

wb_1994_04

Whenever merger and acquisition made by a management then they should have the focus that whether the intrinsic value of the company is increasing or getting diluted.

wb_1994_05

We need not make a difficult investment for getting a good return if we can able to analyze business which is easy to understand and its economic characteristic are long lasting then we can get a good payoff for our investment.

They also give priority to the existing investment rather buy a new investment. They compare that which investment opportunity is more beneficial to them.

Mistake Du Jour

Mr. Buffett has mentioned that purchasing a USAir in the year 1994 as his mistake.

wb_1994_07

WB Letter 1995

Acquisitions

Mr. Buffett has explained regarding acquisitions that when the company has a business which is performed sometimes and worsen at few times then we need to sell the business when it is performing well. Majority of the company doing same so that when the acquisition of any company happens then majority of the time acquiring company does not get a benefit. We need to carefully analyze that whether acquisition increases a per share intrinsic value for shareholder or not.

Examples of wealth destructor companies through acquisition

One of the medical device company which has done reverse compounding of the wealth of investors –

oc_bs

oc_cbs

oc_pl

oc_chart

One of the wind energy company which has done reverse compounding of the wealth of investors –

se_bs

se_cfs_pl

se_chart

Helzberg’s Diamond Shops

Helzberg’s Diamond Shops was started by the grandfather of Barnett Helzberg, Jr. In the year 1915 with a single store which has increased to 134 stores in 23 states. Sales had grown from $10 million in the year 1974 to $282 million in the year 1994. Berkshire has taken stake into the company in the year 1995.

wb_1995_01

R.C. Willey Home Furnishings

R.C.Willey is the leading home furnishings business in Utah. Bill Child, CEO of R.C. Willey has taken over the business from his father-in-law in the year 1954 when sales were about $250,000 and he put efforts which resulted into the sales of $257 million in the year 1995. Company accounts for 50% of the furniture business in Utah.

According to Mr. Buffett, Retailing is a tough business –

wb_1995_02

GEICO Corporation

wb_1995_03

Mr. Buffett has bought GEICO into his personal account when he was at the age of 20 years.

wb_1995_04 wb_1995_05

Float

Berkshire has not only compounded business earnings but also compounded its float. Since the year 1967 to the year 1995, Company has compounded its float by the compounded rate of 20.7%.

wb_1995_06

Examples of the companies which generating 10%+ ROA and compounded float –

One of the automobile and commercial vehicle company which has created a huge wealth –

em_bs em_cbs em_cfs em_chart

One of the automobile company which has created a wealth –

hm_bs hm_cbs hm_cfs hm_chart

One of the FMCG Company which has created a huge wealth –

hul_bs hul_cbs hul_cfs hul_chart

One of the Asset Management Company –

hamc_bs hamc_cbs hamc_cfs

Charlie and Buffett believes to control being wrong and follow – “Just tell me the bad news; the good news will take care of itself”

Disney

The merger of Cap Cities into the Disney approved in the year 1995 where Cap Cities shareholders get a choice of cash or share of Disney (one share of Disney for one share of Cap Cities). Berkshire has selected share option for their 20 million of Cap Cities shares.

Mr. Buffett has been interested into the Disney since the year 1966 where Disney was available at ~23% of pre-tax earnings yield (23% = $21 million of pre-tax profit / $90 million of market value).

wb_1995_06__1_