Tag Archives: Bull

The Intelligent Investor – 8 – The Investor and Market Fluctuations

Posted on by under Bibliophile: The Intelligent Investor

When we have invested in the bonds then that will get little fluctuation to the market price. But when we have invested in the common stocks then it will have a wider fluctuation to the market price. So that we need to be ready financially and psychologically for upcoming fluctuation into our common stock investment. It is easy to advise for not doing a speculate but hard to follow it. Fluctuation and behavior of the market attract us to make a speculative decision. So, if we want to make a speculative decision then keep aside some amount of money as considering that we are going to lose it through speculation.

We need to take a benefit from the swing of the market pendulum rather than getting trapped into it. And we can take a benefit by way of timing to the market or through pricing.

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We cannot predict the direction of the market consistently and if we start predicting a direction then we end up as a speculator, not as an investor. People want to buy during the bear market where everyone else is selling and sell during the bull market where everyone else is buying. But people are tending to do the reverse, the majority of the people buy at high / during a bull market and sell at low / during a bear market.

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Similar has happened during the year 2017, people have seen a bull market from the year 2014 to 2017 and they started believing that this will never be going to end and stock prices keep on going higher and higher.

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1st, 2nd and 3rd point has been explained to the previous articles of the same series.

One of the optical and data networking products company

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IPO of the company came at Rs.257 so that MCap was ~Rs.2367cr which was at the EV/EBITDA of 14.09x in FY17 and stock price rose to ~Rs.437 in FY18 which was at EV/EBITDA of ~26.33x. The company has incurred losses in a few years and came to profit since FY2016.

One of the publication company

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The IPO of the company came at P/E of 33x and EV/EBITDA of 16.59x.

Day-to-day or month-on-month fluctuation to the market does not make investors richer or poorer. But what will happen for a longer period that will impact the wealth of investors. We need to keep distance ourselves from the crowd rather than go with the crowd. Also, we need to focus on emotional stability over an investment journey which helps us a lot. The normal investor gets trapped with greed as the market starts advances, but at the same time, intelligent investors booked a position of overpriced issues and parked those funds to bond, he will re-balance his portfolio.

Owning a common stock means we are a part-owner of the business, but due to the advancement of the stock market operation, investor’s mind gets diverted and they are getting more engaged towards the stock prices. They forget that stock price fluctuation should not be focused but they have to focus on the value of the businesses, quality of the businesses and progress of the businesses. Stock prices bring distance between business and us. If a person is making an investment for a longer period, but getting fluctuated as stock prices get fluctuate then he does not know for the emotionally stable and matured investors. Matured and intelligent investors do not focus on the price quotation every second but they focus on the underlying business. As businesses show successes it becomes popular among the people and it will command more premium, its mood swings with the market, etc.

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We need to focus on earning the power of the business with the asset value of the business. But we should avoid paying higher to the assets as well as to the earning, otherwise, we need to be stay affected through the market fluctuation.

One of the telecom company

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(Source – Thoughts on Thoughts blog)

The company looks very cheap based on the financial metrics and assets base, but if someone who does not have paid attention to the business of the company and earning the power of the business then—

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One of the gelatin company

The company has some uncertainty and raw material problems but having a stable business. The company was traded at ~Rs.66 cr of MCap with having investment + cash on the balance sheet was worth of ~Rs.70+ cr so that entire business was available at free due to uncertainty. The company has delivered a decent return with also deliver Rs.10/per share as a dividend.

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Few critics of value-based investing tell that such an approach does not work with the listed companies due to the ample amount of liquidity available. Such liquidity and stock market platform provide a daily opportunity to the participants to make changes to their holdings.

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Many a time, Mr. Market ready to pay overpriced for the business and sometimes, He is ignoring too few of the businesses. We need to stay away to getting trapped from the Mr. Market mood swings. Mr. Market also behaves like a human being because prices of it and the behavior of it direct through human involvement as a market participant. We need to control our emotions based on our experience and belief over a while. We should stop overpaying attention to the market.

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If we are doing a business then daily price fluctuations will not be going to disturb us and we do not make a change to our holdings. Price fluctuations only provide an opportunity to buy a business at a favorable price and sell when Mr. Market shows a higher price of the business.

The main distinction between speculators and investors is their attitude towards the market. A speculator is willing to make profits by way of market fluctuations whereas investors are willing to hold security at a suitable price and market fluctuations do not important for them. Market prices are just for our conviction so that taking benefits of it or to ignore it depends on us.

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Stocks or a bond, the Market price will remain to fluctuate over a longer-term period. Good company with good management gets recognition into the good market price and bad management will get bad market price recognition.

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Mr. Graham has explained the liquidity concepts which is suitable for the current scenario. The fund manager purchases few stocks for the portfolio, then the market starts moving upwards which attracts the investors to put more money. Now, due to the additional fund inflow, the fund manager has to buy a similar stock to the additional fund which brings stock prices to the dangerous level. Now, as the market falls, investors ask for the withdrawal of the fund and fund manager has sold out stocks to make the payment which leads to further fall to the stock prices. So here, they buy at high and sell at a low price. Our brain makes a pattern that similar has happened during the last time so it might be going to happens now also. And many times, our brain creates a pattern when there is not the availability of any pattern.

What we should need to do for the better than average return –

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Our behavior is most important to get an above-average return. By controlling ourselves, we can stop ourselves from becoming our enemy. When we have made any prediction and that proven right then we become addicted to own predictions.

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Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation. 

Read for more detail: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig

Jerry Tsai You’re not as smart as You Think

Posted on by under Bibliophile, Bibliophile: Big Mistakes

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When the market is into the bull phase, each and every stock in upward momentum. So that everyone who has made an investment is shining and looks like a genius. But we should understand that earning during a bull phase is not our skill, it’s has a role of luck also which has supported us. Our actual skill comes during a bear phase, while we protect our wealth or fall less. But we get confuse and does not appreciate the role of luck during the bull market and make blame to the luck, market, other external factors during the bear market. Such behavior stops us from growing into the investment field.

“APPRECIATING THE ROLE OF LUCK” – Howard Marks

If we could not survive during a bear phase then we definitely going to wipe out or end up with the lower return. But bull phase of the market makes us tempting and overconfidence to our skill rather make an appreciation of luck which has actually perform a role.

Jerry Tsai was run Fidelity Capital Fund by the year 1957 and he was one of the celebrity fund managers during that time. And everyone eager to observe what he was doing.

Mr. Jerry style of managing fund-

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Mr. Jerry has earned a return of 296% in the year 1958-1965 compared to 166% return of conservative equity funds. In the year 1965, Mr. Jerry has sold his ownership stake of Fidelity back to the Fidelity for $2.20 million and launched Manhattan Fund.

Mr. Jerry holds a few of the stocks during the year 1968-69 was Polaroid, Xerox, and IBM. These stocks were traded more than 50 times P/E ratio due to the high growth of earning. And University Computing, Mohawk Data, and Fairchild Camera traded at several‐hundred times their trailing 12‐month earnings.

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We should be always prepared for the bear phase of the market. And also should avoid hot stocks during a time. Whenever I make any investment decision, I keep the year 1929 – great depression to my mind. So that I can survive and stay prepared for a bear phase of the market. When the market is into the bull phase, everyone talks about the return and focus only on earning a return, they do not like to talk about the risk and also do not focus on the risk. Such behavior has proven as a danger for us. And our behavior also responsible for inviting a bear phase from the bull phase.

The game which is played by Mr. Jerry was not a long term surviving but he believes that he can survive for the long term because he has huge insights for the market moves. And he was overstated for his own skills. We need to understand that everyone can earn during a bull market but survival during the bear market is essential. If things do not fall under the criterion then we should avoid it rather chase for it. Not great company will be a great investment at any price. If we are not able to understand it, then does not able to survive for the long term.

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If someone has bought this company during the March-2000, at the high price of around Rs.215 then after the 19 years of the period, he gets returned at 7% CAGR. And if enter to the similar company at the low price of around Rs.138 during the March-2000 then after the 19 years of the period, he gets a returned of 9% CAGR (*Considering recent all-time high price for calculating returns). Though revenue has grown at 26% CAGR, Operating profit grown at 23% CAGR and Net profit also grown at 23% CAGR during the same period. The company is supported by a good management team, good business, leadership position into the industry. During March-2000, the company was traded at 64x P/E at the low price of Rs.138 and this multiple are common nowadays and we consider it as a quality company ask for the premium. We cannot estimate which valuation multiple is high or low but we can understand that what is reasonable and what is not.

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Read for more detail: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick

BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS “CONTROLLING RISK”

Posted on by under BIBLIOPHILE: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING BY HOWARD MARKS

In the last article, we have talked about the identifying risk and recognizing risk. Now, in the current article, we discuss regarding controlling the risk. Generally, in the market, we put much emphasis on the higher absolute return instead of superior risk-adjusted return. But the great investors are those who focus on the risk and generate moderate returns with low risk or high return with moderate risk.

Generating higher returns with the higher risk for a long time is rare in the market. The risk of losing money arises when our investment meets adverse situations and Loss does not occur till the negative events occur. We should always focus on controlling the risk because we do not know that when the negative situation arises and we met losses.

When we bought the home, we check that the home is constructed in a way which can be protected by earthquake or not. The similarly, we should focus on our investment. We should focus on the situations where the occurrence of such negative situations can destroy our wealth. And work as an earthquake in our financial position.

It can be possible that an earthquake will never happen in life long, but we bought the home which can be protected with an earthquake. Similarly, it may be possible that adverse situations will not arise during our investment time, but we should focus on raising of adverse situations and how we can able to protect our wealth from such situations.

The risk is not always easily visible. If our surrounding environment is positive, then we start thinking that negative situation may not arise due to the influence of that positive environment. But in fact, the risk is always present in the good environment also. And anytime good environment can easily turn out to the bad environment. Such transformation does not come to us with the prior intimation. We must have to be ready properly with such considerations before making investment decisions. Even controlling risk is becoming essential into the good environment because nobody is talking about risk and in a bad environment, risk takes care of itself because everyone fearing of risk.

Generating superior return compared to benchmark with the similar risk nature is a good performance. But, a good value addition is while we generate a return which is like the benchmark return with the lowest risk and with proper controlling of the risk. Such scenario is even better.

 

When the environment is positive, everyone rides the wave and we cannot able to say which one is better. (Good article – Doubled your Money in Last 3 Years ? Skill or Luck ?)

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So that we should always focus on the controlling risk, whether it will rise or not. Because we cannot able to really predict the occurrence of the risk.

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Careful investors always know that they cannot able to know the future so that they try to focus on controlling risk and try to factor the risk of loss of capital while they make any investment decisions.

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We start avoiding focusing on risk as the environment is going positive. Initially, we might put weight on risk, but many times that risk might not get triggered. So that we start avoiding it and started believing that there is a no risk into the environment. Such risk will not occur and we saved from the negative situation.

As we have seen in Russian Roulette with 100 chances, we may save for 99 times, but the 1 time can kill us. Or if we are lucky we can be saved all the 100 times. It doesn’t mean that there is no risk or risk may not arise in the future.

Example – THE EVENTUAL CONSEQUENCES OF RISK SEEKING OR RISK BLIND BEHAVIOR

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We constructed belief in our mind from our past experiences. If we have seen the positive environment, then we have made belief that negative situations never come. We should always keep in mind that occasionally extreme situations can arise and that can be out of our all belief.

In the year 2007, also welcome structured products, huge capital inflows, etc.

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We should not run from the risk but should manage risk intelligently. We should take the risk, but at the appropriate time and most importantly at an appropriate price.

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When we walk on a road with keeping our eyes closed and we do not meet an accident, then it’s not our talent, it’s a pure luck which plays out. We are a real blind if we consider such situation as our own skill. And such risky situations do not stay rewarding for a long period and we must walk on the road with keeping our eyes open.

Read for more detail: The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks