12 – Current temptation, future frustration

Posted on by under Current temptation, future frustration

The 12th part of Series “Current temptation, future frustration”. This series is based on the companies which are currently darling of the market and many trying to catch such opportunities but it has a probability to become a reason for future frustration. It can wipe out the majority of gains in wealth. I am trying to put some of the number-crunching facts by which we can identify ongoing issues in the companies and can save our wealth.

I am starting this article with one of the company which is engaged in the business of manufacturing and selling UPVC pipes and fittings has a 52 weeks low price of Rs.20 and LTP is Rs.80, 52 weeks high price of Rs.85. This company has rewarded ~4.25x of return in a year.

Let’s start looking at the numbers.

We can see that no growth in sales of the company or PAT, especially from FY16-21 (take FY21 as a washout year then also).

We can see at working capital then we found that the cash conversion cycle is improving YoY, due to higher payable days. Also, payable as % of sales improving. At first, we get excited and feel it is a turnaround. But then quote of sage Mr. Buffett comes to my mind – “Turnarounds seldom turn.” So, I try to check deeper. And I found related parties’ transactions.

Here, I found that the company has huge related parties transactions which help to boost sales growth as well as it has outstanding payables which are also higher. I thought to adjust both payables as well as sales to derive ex-related parties’ figures.

If we see adjusted with related parties then cash conversion cycle days increased by 51 in FY18, 61 in FY19, 64 in FY20, and 74 days in FY21.

Investment also parked to associate company.

This entire series is based on past available data and ignored the future development in companies and the stock market always looks at the future.

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation.

This series contains learning from books –

Financial Shenanigans

Quality of Earnings

The Financial Numbers Game

Creative Cash Flow Reporting

Be the Bank, not the Banker

Posted on by under Bibliophile: Cashflow Quadrant

When a panic situation is everywhere people got trapped with fear emotion. We cannot see the cheaply available investment avenue if we cannot think with rational thinking. During such a period, a person who has control over emotions has financial intelligence then he can establish a business and expand it with little effort.

If we have read, having financial intelligence, control over emotions then we can say that time will change but history repeats itself.

Every bull phase has many financial heroes and when it burst, the majority of heroes becomes a villain. So, we have to put lots of care before admiring any of the heroes of a particular time.

An employee has to first pay tax from income that is income – tax then remaining for spending. While for businesses income – spending then remaining for tax.

While governments would like to take more money from corporate bodies, they realize that if they pass abusive tax laws, the corporate bodies will take both their money and their jobs to some other country.

We need to focus on increasing an asset on the balance sheet. This we cannot do in one go. We can slowly and steadily acquire assets without getting over-leverage and without taking additional risk.

Start small, and take your time. Experience is more important than money.

We need to transfer our thoughts process from “I can’t” to “how I can do it”. Then we can see that the results get started. But it’s not an easy and short process. It will take time and effort to change the thoughts. Another point is when we are working for being “B” and “I” then we need to focus on understanding laws and take benefits from them.

We should focus on reading history and try to learn from it. So that we can understand the cyclical nature of any market. And we can take benefits of those nature.

We have two choices, either we can choose security or freedom. If we go for security then we have to pay a huge price and taxation. If we go for freedom then we can learn to play this game and can play it wisely.

Read for more detail: Rich Dad’s Cashflow Quadrant: Guide to Financial Freedom

WHY THE ‘BALANCING FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE’ IS BALONEY Gambler’s Fallacy

Posted on by under Behavioral Finance

The gambler’s fallacy leads us to believe that something must change. So, when we toss a coin five times and it has a head then we believe that it has a higher probability to come trail in the next flip.

In real life, in the financial markets, and business, with the weather and your health, events are often interrelated. What has already happened influences what will happen. As comforting an idea as it is, there is simply no balancing force out there for independent events. ‘What goes around, comes around’ simply does not exist.

Business – When a business generates continuous loss then management thinks that now there is a chance of generating profit. But we have to think that it is not always possible to get profit from losses. If a business has generated losses in past then it has a higher probability to repeat the same further. Warren Buffett said, “turnarounds seldom turn.”

Investment – When we have seen a poor past fundamental performance of the company over a year but we believe that now the company will do well but it is not likely. We should understand that if the company has delivered a poor fundamental performance, then it has a higher probability to continue with it. There can be a very low probability to be come out as a winner. Rather to give higher weight to what can change, we should focus on what can remain as it is. We should write down points where things can sustain for a longer period.

This entire series will be review with various examples from books which are “Thinking, Fast and Slow” and “The Art of Thinking Clearly“.

How Do I Get Rich?

Posted on by under Bibliophile: Cashflow Quadrant

In reality, that is how simple the path to extraordinary wealth is. In other words, in this high-tech world, the principles of great wealth remain simple and low-tech. I would say that it’s merely common sense. But too often, when it comes to the subject of money, common sense is uncommon.

If we focus on what is a real asset of rich people then they think differently. If we keep on following the same path that all others are following then we end up with tax payments and debt.

First, we need to start thinking differently from what common thinking is. If we focus on who we are and what we want to do then we can achieve what we want.

We need not do something just shake of doing it. We have to put our best into it. If we do not put our full efforts with willingness then we cannot able to continue it for a long time.

People focus on what the rich have and tried to own the same. But not the way rich has own. Other people focus on looking rich, not being rich and that will blow them up. It is all about being, not doing. When we focus on doing a workout then it will not last long. But when we focus on being fit then it will longer till the end. Similarly, with rich, we can be rich, not we can do rich. Changing our thinking does not cost anything but in reality, changing our core beliefs are hard. If we focus on being fit then doing workouts and having a perfect body will come as a result. So that we have to focus on being rich.

The rich or middle class, we all are human beings and as human beings, we all have an emotion. When it is about money, our emotions get stronger. But how we manage our emotions, makes us different individuals.

When it comes to money, we all have a fear of losing it. This emotion will make us a prisoner and we keep on doing work for money. When we can control and focus on emotions, we can achieve what we want. It’s not only about the financial field but the same I have observed during my workout journey. When we control our emotions, we become mature.

Sometimes, we feel that we are making a rational decision, but those decisions are purely affected by our emotions.

When we make any decision, others’ opinions always come to stop us. They laughed at our decision; they quote that you can’t do it. But we should focus on our strength and control emotions by saying we can do it. Changing a quadrant is an internal journey, we have to learn the new mindset and new skillsets. 

What’s the main difference between winners and losers? Losers keep giving more investment to their losing positions and winners cut the losing positions. Winners know that losing can come in the way of winning so they do not stay in ego that they cannot lose.

Above emotional biases stop us from taking wise, rational decisions. If a person’s emotions think for them, those emotional thoughts often blind them from seeing anything else. Emotions always need to control and that is a key to success in an “I” quadrant.

Knowledge is overrated. Temperament comes first then experience and then knowledge which was quoted by Mr. Durgesh Shah sir in one of its interview.

Read for more detail: Rich Dad’s Cashflow Quadrant: Guide to Financial Freedom