07 – THE PENDULUM OF INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY – MASTERING THE MARKET CYCLE

Psychology/emotions affect corporate profits and investment cycles as well. We have seen the pendulum swings in both the extreme and investment world also moves in the same way.

Between euphoria and depression, between celebrating positive developments and obsessing over negatives, and thus between being overpriced and underpriced.

And few other observations of the pendulum – between greed and fear, between optimism and pessimism, between risk tolerance and risk aversion, between credence and scepticism, between faith in value in the future and insistence of concrete value in the present, and between the urgency to buy and panic to sell.

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Above is average return but what about good and bad cycle?

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When people feel good about the investment, Optimistic about it then they are in the greed and buy more which resulted in the increase of assets prices. On the other hand, when they do not feel good about the investment, pessimistic about it then sell their assets which reduces the prices of assets. Sometimes market plays between a range where greed and fear both having a stronghold.

When investors do not feel fear then prices of assets keep on raising up. Similarly happens during the tech boom 1999-2000, subprime in 2003-2007 and current scenario.

Somehow the greed evaporated and fear took over. “Buy before you miss out” was replaced by “Sell before it goes to zero.” When greed is high then people find for next Infosys, top-performing private sector banks but when fear is higher than seeing each as a next Yes bank, DHFL.

Other factors such as euphoria and depression are an extension of greed and fear. Continuing greed translated into the euphoria and fear into the depression.

When prices of assets raise then people believe in any stories prevailing in the market but reversely when prices falling then cheap assets does not get the attention of investors.

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Superior investors are wise enough and they buy assets when it available at the discount from intrinsic value and there will be a potential to increase in intrinsic value.

For making such investment decisions, they need to keep a balance between greed and fear. Very few investors remain cool and unemotional to stay at the midpoint of fear & greed. Else, the majority of people remains greedy when everyone is optimistic and fearful when everyone is pessimistic. The pendulum moves from one extreme to the other and remains quiet for midpoint. For becoming a superior investor, we need to be unemotional to such swings. Emotional people will require a great deal of self-awareness and self-restraint for becoming a successful investor.

People generally remains biased with their emotions to reach any conclusion.

INTEREST RATE CUTS: DOES IT PROVIDE LONG-TERM BENEFITS?

Many times, it has been noticed that news over both extreme – positive and negative but market keep on rising.

So that, Interpretation of the data has importance. During the depression time, positive news getting ignored and negative news only getting rewarded. Reversely, during the euphoric situation, negative news getting ignored and positive news only getting rewarded. Saving ourselves from such traps results in the superior investment returns and long-term survival of our wealth.

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation. 

Read for more detail: Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the odds on your side by Mr.Howard Marks

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 2008 – 2010

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2008

WB 2008 01

WB 2008 02

When there is a pessimism into the market then we get an opportunity to buy a good business at a discounted value. But during a euphoric time period, good businesses are available at a sky-high value.

Indian companies examples

One of the wealth creator IT Company during an IT bubble

InfyINFY Chart

One of the wealth creator IT Company during an IT bubble

WiproWipro Chart

One of the two-wheelers and commercial vehicle manufacturing company was available at a discounted value during pessimism of the year 2008

EicherEicher Chart

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2009

What is avoided by Mr. Buffett and Mr.Munger —

WB 2009 01

WB 2009 02WB 2009 03WB 2009 04

Mr. Buffett on derivatives –

WB 2009 05

Warren Buffett’s Letter 2010

WB 2010 01

One of the infrastructure company

RInf

One of the electric motors, generators, transformers manufacturing company

Siemens 01Siemens 02

Mr. Buffett on debt-

WB 2010 02

Example SIMPLE IS BETTER – ISSUE -4 – Mr. EMI V/S Mr. SIP

Mr. Buffett on crowd mentality-

WB 2010 03

Mr. Buffett on Repurchase of shares –

WB 2010 04

One of the Pharma Company of India which has sold one of the business segment into the FY2011 and company becomes a Cash bargain. The company has done a buyback at that time.

PEL 01PEL 02

The company has a total Cash balance of Rs.1770.28 crore + Upcoming cash due to the sale of the business worth of Rs.7136.00 crore = Rs.8906.28 crore. And the company was available at MCap of ~Rs.7830 crore. Entire continuing business was not given valued by the market.

One of the two-wheelers and commercial vehicle manufacturing company has done a buyback in the year 2009

EM 01

The company has a total Cash balance of Rs.1260.05 crore. And the company was available at MCap of ~Rs.608 crore. Entire continuing business was not given valued by the market.

One of the metal company in the year 2016 has come up with the buyback. In the year 2016, the price of iron ore was traded lower.

Iron oreNMDC 01NMDC 02

Company had a cash balance of Rs.14806 crore in FY16 and PAT of Rs.2517 crore. Company was available at MCap of ~Rs.28440 crore. Entire continuing business ex-cash was available at 5.94x of PAT (MCap Rs.28440 crore – Cash Rs.14806 crore + debt Rs.1497 crore = Rs.15130.86 crore; EV Rs.15130.86 crore / PAT Rs.2517 crore = 5.94x).

Warren Buffett’s Letters 1957 – 2012

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