CONGRATULATIONS! YOU’VE WON RUSSIAN ROULETTE Alternative Paths

Alternative paths are all the outcomes that could have happened but did not. When we reach somewhere with one path but there are different paths or possibilities which is invisible and that can happen. But did not happen. If any alternative paths have happened then it has a possibility that we might not reach a destination or ruin in a way or reach faster or reach slower.

There can be several permutations and combinations for the occurrence of any events. If one event out of those numbers of combinations happens then it does not mean that another event cannot happen.

Let’s try to explain the concept with an example of the “What If…?” series of Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). We all know that how Mr. Tony Stark has become the Iron man in an MCU movie after he was kidnapped.

Its “What If” series has shown that, if Tony Stark was not kidnapped then he might not come out as Iron Man. We cannot be denied the occurrence of alternative events.

So does not the occurrence of one event has changed the entire story of Iron Man. Similar way, our life also has many alternatives to happen.

Investment – When we have gained through investment, we need to understand that there can be many alternative ways that have not happened. And that does not mean that we have not taken the risk.

Risk is not directly visible. Therefore, always consider what the alternative paths are. The success that comes about through risky dealings is, to a rational mind, of less worth than success achieved the ‘boring’ way. People only think about success but there can be different possibilities that need to focus on.

I know a few of my friends who bet on the company where the occurrence of some event can help the company to earn revenue (earlier no revenue). But what if the event does not happen? We must have to be ready for the occurrence of an unexpected event. Do we have any substantial margin of safety when the assumed event does not occur? Do we have at least winter soldier (chance to not lose much) if Tony does not come out as Iron Man?

When we make any assumption about investment, we also should prepare alternative events which can happen. There should be a scenario analysis while making any investment decision. (What If Tony Stark do not become Iron Man 😉)

This entire series will be reviewed with various examples from books which are Thinking, Fast and Slow and The Art of Thinking Clearly.

Avengers: Endgame and Investment

Previously I have written a post on learning investment lessons from movies such as Chal Man Jeetva Jaiye”, “Dangal”, “3 Idiots, Rajneeti”, Sanjuand Badla. Now, I am going to write a few investment lessons from another movie Avengers: Endgame. Avengers: Endgame is not only a movie but it’s an emotion.

  • Accept the reality and don’t lose temperament

Extract from the movie At the starts of the movie, we have seen that Tony Stark stuck in a space and going to die. During the time, he has accepted death and didn’t lose his temperament. He has keep environment live.

Co-relation in real life We face similar kind of events in our life and investment journey where we do not get any clue about what to do. We should not lose temperament and work on the acceptance of reality.

  • Don’t lose hope and identity due to failure

Extract from the movie We have seen that initially, Tony has denied helping Ant-man and Cap for time travel. But later on, he has worked on the time travel mission. He has made it possible to do a time travel.

Co-relation in real life Similar way in our life and investment, if we faced failure then we should not stay away from our actual identity. Rather we should work on it and turn out our failure into success. If we lose our identity then we cannot get back success and we stuck with the failure for a lifetime. It is obvious that we face failures in our life, our assumptions go wrong, the market takes more time than we have assumed to recognize the value of our investment.

  • Wait for the opportunity

Extract from the movie We have seen that Avengers got an opportunity after the 5 years also. They had never think about it. But when the opportunity comes they have captured it and take benefits of it.

Co-relation in real life In the investment field, we get very limited opportunities to make an investment. We need to wait for the opportunity while we are not getting it. We should not accept failure if we do not get an opportunity for a huge time. We should always wait for the opportunity.

  • Accept the failure but do not give up

Extract from the movie We have seen that Thor was not able to accept his failure and he slipped into the depression. He was not ready initially for help to the Hulk but later on, get ready.

Co-relation in real life Similarly, we should not slip into the depression when we face any failure but we should accept it and work on the turnout our weakness into the strength. If we slip into the depression then we cannot able to capture an opportunity when we get it.

  • Accept the uncertainty which can change all the scenario

Extract from the movie Thanos got aware of the plan of the Avengers and he came from past to the future for capturing all stones from Avengers. Avengers has believed that they collect all the stones and provide lives of those who lose life due to Thanos in infinity war. But Thanos also came to the future and he had attacked the Avengers.

Co-relation in real life Similarly, we should accept the uncertainty while we make investment decisions. Anything can happen into the investment journey which we do not have assumed. Uncertainty is only certain to happen.

  • Accept that we cannot control fortune

Extract from the movie We have seen in infinity war that Avengers cannot able to stop Thanos and Thanos has completed his task. Avengers has made a huge effort to stop to Thanos but Thanos has given death to half of the population of the earth with few of Avengers also. This proves that we only can put efforts but cannot control the fortune.

Co-relation in real life In the investment field also, we can just work on the company identifying, analyzing, allocation, risk management, etc. But we cannot control our return. The return will be not into our control. It’s just our fortune which we cannot control.

  • Put entire efforts when the opportunity comes

Extract from the movie When the opportunity comes to bring back the life of half of the world then Avengers has put entire efforts. Also, when it comes to again protect the entire world by Thanos, they have put their entire efforts and in which we have seen that Tony has lost his life. Hulk got injured and the black widow had sacrificed her life.

Co-relation in real life We does not know that when the opportunity comes to us. But we have to be ready for the opportunity and when it comes, we must have to put our entire efforts. We do not get investment opportunities on a daily basis so till the time, we are not getting an opportunity, and we should start working on making us stronger and stronger. And when the opportunity comes to have to build up a position.

  • Accept the disconfirming evidence

Extract from the movie During the infinity war, we have seen that Dr. Strange had mentioned that they have one chance to win from the 14 million chances. Same into the Age of Ultron, when Tony wants to build a protection shield, then nobody got agreed with him. They said they fight for any uncertainty and either win or lose but that will be together.

Co-relation in real life We should not think that if we have a good track record of making an investment then we will win the game. But we have to accept the disconfirming evidence and be prepared according to it. We should not negate the disconfirming evidence and prepare for upcoming uncertainty.

  • Fight with own emotions to win

Extract from the movie Tony was not ready to help for time travel when Captain America has approached him. He was fearing for losing togetherness of family. He feared because he has faced death very closely. He knows that he can help with the time travel but his fear was stopping him. When Pepper Potts had explained to him that he can help others and he should then Tony got ready to help for time traveling.

Co-relation in real life Similarly, we also have a fear of losing what we are currently holding or what we can lose from our past failures. We should not keep our past memories to hold us and keep on drain us. We should control the emotion and fight with it. Otherwise, we cannot able to achieve what we want. If we have made an investment mistake in past and those memories holding us and stop us from making a new investment or we are holding an investment which we do not want to lose then we may not able to perform a task which is the demand of time.

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