BIBLIOPHILE: WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER 1957 – 2017

Posted on January 13, 2019 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile, E-BOOK

Mr.Buffett has taught us –

Never count on making a good sale. Have a purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results. The better sales will be the frosting on the cake.

Our business is making excellent purchases – not making extraordinary sales.

Mr. Buffett believes that big money can be made by making investment decisions based on qualitative factors whereas sure money can be made by making investment decisions based on quantitative factors. And hence, on the basis of this; he considers himself as a quantitatively focused investor.

The primary test of managerial economic performance is the achievement of a high earnings rate on equity capital employed (without undue leverage, accounting gimmickry, etc.) and not the achievement of consistent gains in earnings per share.

Business must have two characteristics: (1) an ability to increase prices rather easily (even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized) without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume, and (2) an ability to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business (often produced more by inflation than by real growth) with only minor additional investment of capital.

Many a time, management only focuses on the increasing future Earning Per Share (EPS) by sacrificing the strength of the balance sheet. But they forget that if the balance sheet does not remain strong for a longer period of time then business is going to have a tough time into the future.

Accounting numbers, of course, are the language of business and as such are of enormous help to anyone evaluating the worth of a business and tracking its progress. Charlie and I would be lost without these numbers: they invariably are the starting point for us in evaluating our own businesses and those of others. Managers and owners need to remember, however, that accounting is but an aid to business thinking, never a substitute for it.

“What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history.”

Any company’s level of profitability is determined by three items: (1) what its assets earn; (2) what its liabilities cost; and (3) its utilization of “leverage” – that is, the degree to which its assets are funded by liabilities rather than by equity. Great companies = Float + Investment + Cash with higher return ratio

If the choice is between a questionable business at a comfortable price or a comfortable business at a questionable price, we much prefer the latter. What really gets our attention, however, is a comfortable business at a comfortable price.

Buy commodity, sell brand has long been a formula for business success.

Capital-intensive business, look for PBT / interest cost rather EBITDA / interest cost.

When we are fearful with our investment decisions then we focus on the each and every aspects which can result in the erosion of the capital.

Mr.Buffett has taught us many concepts and wisdom which is essential to us while making an investment decision. I am hereby compiling all my learning from the letters of Mr.Warren Buffett. Also an evolution of Mr.Buffett from bargain to quality businesses.

For all in one learning from Mr.Warren Buffett’s Letters, Click here –> BIBLIOPHILE WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER 1957-2017

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 1962 – 1963

Posted on February 5, 2018 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile

I am really grateful to Riddhi for helping me with editing work.

WB Letter 1962

Mr.Buffett has a target to an approximately 0.5% decline for each 1% decline in the market. He has always made an emphasis on the falling less compared to the market. Also, he has never tried to predict the market direction.

WB Letter 1963

Mr. Buffett has mentioned few points which we require to keep in mind –

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Mr. Buffett puts emphasis on benefits of compounding and mentions that if we want to enjoy the benefits of compounding then either we have to live long (which is impossible to assume) or compound our money at a higher rate (practical to focus on).

Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company

Mr. Buffett had acquired 73% ownership of the Dempster Mill by August 1961 at an average price of $28.

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Mr. Buffett had valued Dempster by providing an appropriate discount to various assets and he concluded the value of those assets at $35 on the Fiscal year ending 30th November 1961.

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Mr. Buffett has provided a different discount on various assets. The discount applied on various assets is mentioned in the 3rd column and discount adjusted in the value of assets is shown in the 4th column. The total value of assets after discount was $4438000 and total liabilities of the company was $2318000. If he liquidates all the assets after applying discount then he will receive $4438000. Now, if he repays all the outstanding liabilities from adjusted value then the remaining balance with the company would be $2120000 ($4438 – $2318). Per share value of Dempster was $35.25 ($2120/60146 (no. of outstanding shares)).

On 17th April 1962, Mr. Buffett met Mr. Harry Bottle and appointed him as the president on 23rd April 1962 for the better utilization of capital and reduction of overheads. Mr. Harry had achieved all goals set by Mr. Buffett and the result achieved is shown below in the form of balance sheet –

They had to sell off the non-productive assets to reduce the liabilities of the company. Also, Mr. Buffett had started investing the excess cash into the marketable securities in which he is an expert. Once again, he gave an appropriate discount to various assets & after deducting the liabilities and adding fund (which he got through shares) and resulted at the value of $3185000 (3471000 – 346000 + 60000). We can see that value of the company had been increased from $2120000 in the year 1961 to $3185000 in the year 1962. Mr. Buffett’s and Mr. Harry’s decision of capital allocation resulted in the enhancement of the value of the Dempster. And the value of the company grew in the year 1963 as compared to in 1962.

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Making a controlling stake becomes difficult for us as retail investors. So that we should try identifying companies which are involved in the restructuring decision and also correcting their capital allocation decisions. There is an Indian listed company which has gone through the process of restructuring in the year 2007-08. The company has been experiencing a tough time due to some inappropriate capital allocation decision and hence the management decided to correct their mistakes.

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Symphony

Price of the company was Rs.4.28 in Sept’08 and the current price (as on 5th February 2018) of the company is Rs.1775. We can see in the financial highlights that the company has sold off nonproductive assets and paid off liabilities which enhances the value of the company.

Mr. Buffett’s investment philosophy says –

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In the above example of the Indian company, sales growth has contributed multifold returns, but even if their sales did not show growth then their investors won’t lose their capital.

Warren Buffett’s Letters 1957 – 2012

WARREN BUFFETT’S LETTER – 1960 – 1961

Posted on January 18, 2018 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile

I am really grateful to Riddhi for helping me with editing work.

WB Letter 1960

In 1959 letter, Mr. Buffett had made an investment of 35% of net assets in the company named Sanborn Map Co.

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Maps are immensely useful to the fire insurance companies. Business is operated in a monopolistic manner and without the need for strong sales efforts. Earlier, the insurance companies had feared for the profit of Sanborn Map and hence they placed a number of prominent insurance men to Sanborn’s Board Of Directors to act as a watch-dog.

In 1959, the ratio of PAT reduced to $100000 as compared to $500000 as in the year 1930. The company began to make investment portfolios since they did not need any further capital to run the business. Over a period of time, their investment was accumulated to $2.5 million; of which roughly half was in bond and half in stocks. These investment portfolios worked well but the map business lost its shine.

In the year 1938, the stock was traded at $110 but the value reduced to $45 in the year 1958; whereas their investment per share value increased from $20 to $65. Hence, their stock is available for negative $20 against the investment portfolio.

The company had sales volume of $2 million per year and they owned $7 million worth of marketable securities. Their income from investment portfolio was substantial enough to take care of their company’s finance. Regular dividends were paid to all the stockholders but there was a decrease seen in the dividend payout for a constant of 5 times in a period of 8 years. As against this; there was no reduction in the salary of the directors.

Board of directors held a minimal position in the Sanborn shares. Buffett proposed to separate the investment portfolio business from the map business. Hence, after the death of the president of Sanborn; his part of shares (around 15000) were bought by Warren Buffett and another 24000 from the open market. Apart from this; there were 2 large stockholders who held 10000 and 8000 shares respectively. They were unhappy with the current situation of the company and they desired to accept the proposed idea of Buffett of separating the business.

Mr. Buffett wanted to work on re-establishment of earning power of the map business. In the same instance, they got an opportunity of converting their physical goods to electronic goods which will multiply their profit for the map business.

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Indian company example – Before 2006, the company was involved in the manufacturing of scooters. But the company discontinued to manufacture in 2006 and became an investment company with the profit that they had made from the sales. At the end of FY2013, the market value of investment portfolio of the company was worth Rs.2034 crore; whereas stock was traded at the market capitalization of Rs.440 crore (stock price of Rs382). Currently, the company is trading at the market capitalization of Rs.3172 crore (stock price of Rs.2775). The company is also paying out healthy dividends.

MScooter

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Mr.Buffett also mentioned that no one should jump to conclusions by reviewing one-year performance. One needs to at least measure five years of performance in both strong and weak markets.

WB Letter 1961

Mr. Buffett had identified few mutual funds and done a comparative performance of mutual funds with the market and with his partnership.

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We can see that Mr. Buffett has outperformed in mutual funds with a heavy margin.

Mr. Buffett used 3 methods of operations as below –

1) Generals

The general situation works with the market situation. The investment outperforms in the bull phase and declines sharply in the bear phase. These investments work well in a longer period of time.

2) Work-outs

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The work-out situation provides stable and safer earnings and due to that Mr.Buffett use borrowed money to take an advantage of work-out situations. In the bear phase; we get better results and in the bullish phase; we get bad performance.

3) Control

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During 1961, Mr. Buffett owned around 70% stake of the Dempster Mill, which was a fall into a control situation category. Initially, Dempster Mill was started as a value investment (General) category but as time passed, this investment came under control situation when an additional stake was purchased by Mr. Buffett.

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The detailed discussion of Dempster Mill investment will be done in the later series of Warren Buffett’s letter.

Few people who want to invest conservatively, have bought government bonds and few others bought blue-chip securities regardless of Price to Earning ratio, dividend yield, etc. with a belief of getting benefits by investing in the bonds.

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