WHAT CAN BE A PROBABLE BOTTOM OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET?

Posted on March 28, 2020 by Jimit Zaveri under Investment Philosophy

We have seen a sharp fall in the market these days. Now, everyone has a question that what can be a probable bottom? where we should start buying? Bottom of the market already made? Should we buy or will we have missed out this opportunity? Yes, Nifty has reached to the fair value zone but pendulum never stayed at the middle zone it will go extreme to both the direction. So, we have seen upside extreme and now have to see downside extreme move.

Before starting answering the above questions, here, I am requesting you to read my old article which I had posted on 4^th August 2019. In that article, I mentioned regarding market fall. Please first go through that article because the current article is a continuation of that article.

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR – 3 – A CENTURY OF STOCK-MARKET HISTORY

Now, if we analyze current fall then we can say that Indian corporate and GDP has witnessed a limited growth in the past. Also, Covid-19 virus has disrupted the entire world economy. Majority of the economy has started giving a revival package but if we look at the speed of the spreading of Covid-19 and death of the people then it is very painful for us as well as the economy.

Our PM has announced with the 21 days lockdown to fight against the Covid-19. We have taken this step well in advance so that we can able to control the situation, because if the situation will go out of control then we do not have a proper infrastructure for citizens to cure.

I have taken a few data from HDFC Bank India growth outlook 2020, cost of lockdown.

By looking at the above data and havoc of Covid-19 in the world, it is essential to go for the not only lockdown but to declare an emergency in India. Now, let’s go to the economic impact of this mayhem. People can oppose that government of the majority of the economy has started announcing a revival package. But We have to think that it’s not a financial crisis where you pump liquidity into the system and things will start recovering. It’s taking the lives of people so what will change after the liquidity get infused. People try to save life rather use those liquidities. So, disruption can take time to revive. If this problem can worsen it will be led to a financial crisis which is still pending to come. It’s just my thoughts, don’t know what can happen but this thing looking worse than any financial crisis.

If the normal situation has come where growth remains subdued then the market can remain in range but here this difficult situation can hamper the earning badly. we have to understand that our states of India are equivalent of the many of the country where corona has done huge damage. Here, the world economy gets hamper, trade around the world hamper, supply chain get disturbs, corporates have to fund fixed cost, they only can manage variable cost through the lockdown.

Many of the articles and reports indicating towards global recession and as intense as the recession of 1929. I don’t know that will happen or not but I only can pray that such will not happen because it will take many further issues with many of the lives. Let’s not getting into the debate and do some number crunching which is always my favourite.

Current, Nifty EPS is ~Rs.444 so proceed with the calculation based on that. I am assuming current EPS will remain same for FY20 and all degrowth will account in FY21 and FY22 (if the situation will not come to the control then FY22 will also go for a toss).

I have taken the bank rate as an SBI FD rate after the rate cut.

Now, if we look at the earnings yield to bond yield ratio then it has reached at the 1.03x in the current period. If we take same EPS and take that ratio to the worst happen during the 2008 – financial crisis then it was 1.11x so nifty level come to the 8000 but Covid-19 will going to hamper earning growth and might be a new level of earning yield to bond yield ratio can come, which I have taken a range of 1.25 to 1.50 with a different scenario.

If things will be in control in coming few days then might be 5% degrowth can be possible and then market also maybe get stable at the old worst level of earning yield to bond yield ratio – 1.11x to 1.25x. But if things will get more worst then now and continue with coming 1-2 months then 10% degrowth in earning can be expected. I have made a study in S&P500 of USA and in that market earning yield to bond yield ratio has reached around 3x in worst level which I am not considering as of now. If we see that then past falls in the market have accounted for ~50% fall from the top so that that will also come to ~6215 level.

Now, another point is that earnings growth always essential for generating returns in the market. So that market can be remaining in the range till no sign comes for earning growth revival because, on the hope of earnings growth, the market has already run a lot.

I have posted an article on WHAT CAN BE A PROBABLE RETURN FROM SENSEX IN COMING 10 YEARS? a way back and where I have taken SENSEX level after 10 years on worst earning growth of 3.50% came at 43547 on P/E and 57678 on P/BV based. So, if earning growth cannot revive then the market can remain in range for a longer period. But from the current base, we can have a good chance of making a return in the range of 4-7% CAGR in the index overcoming 10 years. Tax cut reform will also aid in earning growth coming forward. We only have to pray that situation will not worsen from here and for that we have to stay at home, stay safe and fight against Corona.

#Stayhomestaysafe #Stayhomesavelives #Fightagainstcorona

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation.

The Intelligent Investor – 20 – “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

Posted on December 29, 2019 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile: The Intelligent Investor

This is one of the most important concepts which we need to understand thoroughly for becoming a successful investor.

The margin of Safety concept is for getting saved in the future while unfavorable situations occur. If we have projected sales, PATM (%) for the next 2 years but also conservatively, we have made few haircuts on the projected sales, PATM (%) for making an investment decision for getting saved if any unfavorable situation occurs into the future. Or we can provide a valuation multiple in a conservative manner that protects us from future unfavorable events. This protection against the future unfavorable situation is known as the “Margin of Safety”. The major risk is not uncertainty but losing capital. We can make a good return while there is uncertainty. If we keep on playing the game without proper care for protection against future uncertainty then we always need to be depended on the luck.

Mr. Graham has mentioned that he looks for a greater margin of earning power compared with the bond rate. That means if the AAA bond rate is around 6% then we should buy a company with higher earning power then 6%. Now, the question comes that above 6% but what should be that rate- 7, 8, 9 ….? Such earning power rate should be depended on the quality of business, quality of financial, the stability of earning, growth of future earning, quality of management, future visibility of the business, cyclical nature among the business earnings, future return expectation by investing into the particular business, etc. If the business does not have a stable earning, quality of financial is average, cyclical nature of the business, etc. then we should make an investment at least around the twice of AAA bond rate, I.e. earning power at 12%. We should measure earning power on the PBT, CFO and FCF levels for better judgment.

We should focus on better chances of profit rather than chances for loss. If prices are low for the good assets then that provides us with an opportunity to make an investment with a margin of safety. If prices are too much higher than there will be no availability of any margin of safety.

II C20 01

Few principles are given by Mr. Graham-

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We should not rely on the others’ opinions or optimism on the particular business rather we should focus on the data and arithmetic. Though the crowd does not agree with our view, our data and arithmetic support our view then we should stick with it. If we get over-optimistic towards our investment then we ourselves become a risk for us.

For not being ourselves as a risk for ourselves, there are few points which we need to focus –

II C20 03

II C20 04

II C20 05

The above questions work as a checklist for removing our emotions from the decision making and make a better decision. We do not know the future and sometimes our best analysis will be turnout as a worst so that we need to keep the margin of safety with it.

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation.

Read for more detail: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig

The Intelligent Investor – 19 – Shareholders and Managements: Dividend Policy

Posted on December 22, 2019 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile: The Intelligent Investor

When a question about the questionable management getting asked the shareholders then –

II C19 01

It is always a debatable situation for paying a high dividend or reinvesting profits into the business.

One of the finance company which paying out lower dividend but reinvesting to the business

Bajaj Finance

One of the capital goods company which pays out a decent dividend

Greaves Cotton

If the company does not require to make a reinvestment of profit and no further huge growth opportunity then the company should pay out a higher dividend. But if a company does not pay out a dividend or pay with a lower payout then market price can be seeming to be lower to the fair value.

Another point is when the financial position of the company is not favorable then the company should work on paying out debt and other obligations first rather pay a dividend.

One of the steel company of India

TATA Steel

In theory, we have learned that equity shareholders are the owners of the company but in practice, such things do not go to happens. As a minority shareholder, we need to follow the recommendations given by the management. We cannot go against them.

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There can be two types of problems, we found among the management. First, they are not able to run the business efficiently and second, they do not work in the favor of minority shareholders, they make decisions that help them & create their personal wealth. We need to thoroughly read annual reports, footnotes, corporate announcements, etc. for understanding the efficiency and shareholder-friendly behavior of the management.

For checking the efficiency of the company, we need to compare the company with its peers in terms of profitability, size, growth, competitive advantage, etc. If the company is doing better than peers consistently for a longer period of time, then we can say that management can able to run the company more efficiently.

For checking the shareholder friendliness of the management, we need to check compensation, stock ownership, related party transactions, etc.

Though We are owning a 100000, 1000 or 1 share of the company, if we do not read an annual report of the company and company has gone for a toss then we need to only blame ourselves.

The stock repurchase is considered a good strategy, the dividend comes with tax obligation but buyback is tax-free and also improves financial of the company. But in reality, the company issues ESOP to the executives as a performance bonus and that will end up with the dilution of the equity. Many times, buyback is done for counteracting such dilution. Also, stock buyback is done at the overvaluation or at the undervaluation is matters a lot.

SIMPLE IS BETTER – ISSUE -13 – BUYBACK

Disclosure – Companies mentioned in the article are just for an example & educational purpose. It is not a buy/sell/ hold recommendation.

Read for more detail: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig

The Intelligent Investor – 18 – A Comparison of Eight Pairs of Companies

Posted on December 15, 2019 by Jimit Zaveri under Bibliophile: The Intelligent Investor

We should take care when company deliver their promises but actually traded at more than their promises. Companies that have to deliver a higher sale, earnings growth then they will be available at higher multiple. But we should distinguish between higher and reasonable multiples. Stocks which does not have underlying soundness then those will become speculative and riskier.

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When sales growth keeps coming people ignore the underlying quality of business and financial. As the company grows, its growth becomes slower otherwise the company will eat up the entire world. As growth gets slower, multiple also gets lower. We need to understand that we cannot provide similar multiple to the same company at every phase of the company. Higher quality growth commands a higher multiple but as growth slows down, multiple for the same business gets lower down.

One of the air-cooler manufacturing company of India

Symphony

Symphony1

We can see that as growth slowdown in the FY2018 and 2019 then P/E multiple of the company has fallen down rapidly.

Comparison of Real Estate VS Pharma VS FMCG

RE PH FMCG

We can see that in the Jan-2008 Real estate companies (Just two companies) MCap was ~4x of 10 pharma companies and ~2x of 10 FMCG companies. Pharma and FMCG companies have posted growth and real estate companies are not able to grow at the same peace. In addition, real estate companies were traded at sky-high valuations which resulted in an average return of ~-91% whereas Pharma (*not taken from high mcap) and FMCG has posted average return of ~963% and 1109% respectively.

If we look at the fall in price too low of 2008 then also pharma and FMCG have outperformed real estate.

RE PH FMCG1

If we see the quality companies i.e. pharma and FMCG then those fall less than the entire market fall, Nifty fell by 50%+ in the year 2008.

In the Short term, any stocks win the popularity of the market but in the long-term earnings matters. If we see that fancy business has does not perform in the long term but boring business such as FMCG has outperformed in the long term.

If we look at the P/E multiple of DLF and Unitech then that was 36.69x and 82.22x in high of the year 2008 and that fall to 4.67x and 4.21x respectively. Whereas Lupin, Sun Pharma, HUL, ITC, and Nestle was traded at P/E of 13.54x, 17.91x, 26.23x, 29.34x, 26.90x and fall to 12.50x, 17.52x, 26.71x, 22.28x, 24.80x respectively.

Market panic provides us with an opportunity to enter into such business which helps us to get more returns. If we have bought the above-mentioned pharma and FMCG companies at a high of the year 2008 and then bought again at low of the year 2008 then-current average return of pharma and FMCG has been increased by ~347% and 137% respectively.

For the current scenario, if we see HUL MCap vs 10 Pharma companies then HUL has a 24% higher MCap from pharma 10 companies.

This analysis is given by many of the investors and fund managers but if we look at the return ratios then average RONW% & ROCE% of top 25 pharma companies is ~20% and average RONW% & ROCE% of top 10 pharma companies is ~16% whereas RONW% & ROCE% for the HUL is 80% and 90% respectively.

Pharma VS HUL

So, if we look at the growth and profitability of the top 10 pharma and HUL then does not has a wide difference but asset quality is far good for HUL compared to the top 10 pharma which must need to look. This comparison is not similar to real estate and pharma and FMCG whereas real estate has poor asset quality compared to the pharma and FMCG but here HUL has a better asset quality. If pharma has a huge earning growth compared to the HUL with 15-20% of return ratios then we can look into it. If we look at the ~73 listed FMCG then those companies do not have similar asset quality then they do not have a similar kind of valuation but those have, they command.

Closed watch also shows real-time sometimes in a day that does not mean, we consider that watch as a good watch.

If we compared sugar companies’ vs tea & coffee companies then it can be a good comparison where sugar companies are available more than double in MCap.

Sugar VS Tea & Coffee